Motorboats are for the rich
As I enjoy an afternoon On the shores of Donner Lake, the slushing of the water is occasionally interrupted by the noise of a fast motorboat. The spiffier the boat, the older the driver. Up and down they go in the lake.
Having a speedboat is truly for the rich. The sleek wooden sixties boats of Lake Tahoe are for the ultra rich.
It takes a lot of effort to own a boat. You need a decently powerful car or SUV to pull it. You need a place to store it. You have to maintain it. And most days of the year you are not using it.
Owning an expensive car is different. You are still driving your $100,000 car to the store, to the farmers’ market, to work or when you go on a road trip. Even though it is expensive, it has utilitarian value. That is not the case when you own a motorboat. Unless you are a fisherman, or live on the water, they are typically only for leisure.
Of course, there are the ambitious, who like the idea of owning a boat. Yet the boat never leaves their driveway. That is an expensive front yard adornment.
July 31, 2020
Continuing Claims
The pandemic shoes start to drop. The stock market had recovered a lot of its initial pandemic losses. Yet, companies have been laying of people. Factories have been closing or operating at reduces capacity.
It is no wonder that the bad news would eventually arrive.
The big economic report was a mixed bag: GDP fell at a 32.9% annual rate, which — while awful — was slightly better than expected. But a week-to-week increase in unemployment filing has economists antsy.
Market Place’s Kai Ryssdal explains why he is concerned about this. It is referred to as continuing claims.
Continuing claims are people who file for unemployment for at least a second week in a row. The number and trend hint where we are in the economic recovery.
And it ain’t looking good folks.
July 31, 2020
Everybody is a pizza critic
My kids have been watching a show online about pizza.
A Detroit crust is much like a Silician crust. A New Haven crust is just a cracker. By the look of the dough you can tell if it was made in a gas oven or a wood fired oven. And so on.
They tell me that the host of The Pizza Show, Frank, is ever so nice.
Last night’s Caprese pizza was interesting in that it was sprinkled with a sweet balsamic vinegar. It was a bit soggy. But I found it delicious. The rest of the family wasn’t as convinced.
As it comes to pizza, everyone is a critic. Pizza is something very personal. More so than any other food. We may have our preferences between Thai Basil and Jasmine Thai, but we are okay with either restaurant. Wings from Smoke Eaters pack a bit more heat than from Wingstop, but either will do.
As it comes to pizza, it has to come from Pizza California, or from Luigi’s. Visitors from New York will make the trek to the nearest New York Style pizza restaurant, ’cause there is only one style of pizza. And don’t talk to an Italian about Hawaiian pizza, or risk losing a life long friend.
You may not like every pie, but only Little Caesar’s deserves the wrath of the keyboard. For every other pizza, see Anton Ego.
In many ways, the work of a critic is easy. We risk very little, yet enjoy a position over those who offer up their work and their selves to our judgment. We thrive on negative criticism, which is fun to write and to read. But the bitter truth we critics must face, is that in the grand scheme of things, the average piece of junk is probably more meaningful than our criticism designating it so. But there are times when a critic truly risks something, and that is in the discovery and defense of the new. The world is often unkind to new talent, new creations. The new needs friends.
July 30, 2020
California’s majestic Sierra Nevada
When I arrive in Yosemite’s valley, get my first glimpse of Lake Tahoe, or dip my feet in Pinecrest Lake, I get transported to a different era. The beautiful timeless scenery, the pine trees, the wooden chalets, and carved signs take me back to how I imagined these places were in the sixties.
Camp Curry
Were it not that the parking lot at Yosemite’s former Camp Curry is now full of luxury SUVs and modern pickup trucks, rather than Chevy Bel Airs, Ford family wagons and Studebakers, it is hard to tell the year. The canvas tents are the same as in the pictures. The Ahwahnee hotel looks the same, amidst the granite walls of Yosemite valley. And most of all, the scenery changed very little.
Ahwahnee Hotel
I get the same feeling when I head north to Lake Tahoe in summer. I can imagine several Cadillacs pull into Michael Corleone’s lakeside villa. The houses and chalets near Tahoe City appear to be built many decades ago. Squaw Valley’s 1960 Winter Olympics sign is still there.
Lake Tahoe
Of course a few minutes later you are back in the future as you roll into the recently upgraded mountain town of Truckee. They are putting the finishing touches on a brand new high school. There is a yoga studio. The all natural and vegan supermarket has a line out the door. Downtown is historic-chique, where you are park your Tesla next to the restored Truckee hotel.
But as soon as I leave the village, and head up the mountain, or towards the lake, it doesn’t take long for me to feel back in a timeless era. California Sierra’s are so beautiful.
July 28, 2020
It is time to host the Covid Games of 2020
We all want the thrill back of the last minute three pointer, the home run in the bottom of the ninth, or the winning goal from a corner. However covid-19 decided otherwise and halted all sports events. The Bergamo-Valencia game was considered what of the super-spreader events early in the pandemic in Italy.
The question is how can we bring back these mass sporting events in a safe way. The German Bundesliga figured out a system early on, with lots of testing and disinfecting. Teams remain in isolation in hotels, and play game day in an empty stadium with artificial stadium noise. There is no hugging when scoring, only a fist or elbow bump. Such system is only possible when the country is doing well: the curve is bent, plenty of covid tests are available, and a general respect of following the covid rules.
Not every country is in the same situation as Germany. The United States is far from stabilizing the impact from Covid-19. After the initial leveling off of positive Covid-19 cases and deaths, we are now experiencing the wrath of the virus.
As Feynman used to say, “For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.”
The same is true in the US. You can not spin the science, or the Covid-19 data. The virus will not just go away. The spread and impact of the virus is real. Hospital beds are filling up. People suffer and die. For nature cannot be fooled.
Amid this reality, there is hope for experiencing sports in the US: Covid games, brought to you by Disney and ESPN.
ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando
The solution is simple:
- Find an set of isolated resort hotels: Disney World, Las Vegas, Scottsdale, Hawaii, Galveston Island. The key is to be able to assign a hotel per team, and isolate the team from family and fans. These players are making millions. They can live and play in isolation for a month or two, don’t you think. “For the love of the game”.
- Set up the CDC Arena where all the teams will be playing. Without fans, home advantage doesn’t really exist. Teams save money and energy traveling.
- Create an accelerated calendar. Without the need to travel across the country, without fans having to go to the stadium, you can organize a many games a week. The covid-calendar has games Saturday, Sunday, Wednesday and Friday.
- Strict medical protocols, with lots of testing, and disinfecting.
Last night, I watched the San Jose Earthquakes win against Real Salt Lake, playing in Orlando. The NBA started already a mini-league in Disney World. It is odd that Major League Baseball, who invented the resort league with Spring Baseball in Arizona, didn’t move to this system. I don’t know what the plans from the NFL or NHL will be.
The near term future of the major sports leagues in the US, is one where teams will live in isolation, and play in the same Covid-free stadium, away from their fans.
July 28, 2020
traveling writing station
July 28, 2020
images
The way I understand the car business is all wrong
On the drive to Tahoe, we listened again to one of my favorite podcast episodes of This American Life: 129 Cars.
Ira and the gang spend a month at a Jeep dealership on Long Island as they try to make their monthly sales goal: 129 cars. If they make it, they’ll get a huge bonus from the manufacturer, possibly as high as $85,000 — enough to put them in the black for the month. If they don’t make it, it’ll be the second month in a row. So they pull out all the stops.
The car business is hard. Margins are as low as 3%, only slightly better than supermarket margins. Every month, every quarter, every year, the counter starts at zero. That’s how sales works, you say. The difficulty for a car dealer is that success is defined by a magical new sales target, handed down monthly from the manufacturer. Being profitable depends on making the incentive bonus every month.
It does make you wonder why car manufacturers keep a network of car dealers. It seems so expensive, and complicated with the many rebates, bonuses, inventory management, and competing nearby dealers from the same brand.
Tesla went direct to the consumer, except for in Texas where they weren’t able to bend the rules. I do not understand the protectionist laws in place favoring the network of car dealers.
The podcast episode also reiterates how sleazy this business is. If they do not make their money on with the price of the car, they will stuff profit into the extended warranty, or with some add-on protection packages. The customer doesn’t know how to gauge whether these are good items to purchase, and the dealer is not offering them in good faith either.
“Buyers are liars”, that’s how the dealer looks at the customer. There is also the cat and mouse games the sales agents are playing with the sales floor manager. It is one big bazaar, except that if you are in a Moroccan bazaar you know you are being swindled.
With the covid-19 pandemic, I expected car dealers to be suffering tremendously. You were to shelter in place, rather than shop for a car. Where were you heading to anyway, that you needed a car.
This could be a moment to make a great deal, and replace my aging 2005 Volvo as it neared 200,000 miles.
It was true for the first 3 months that few cars were sold. Then with the gradual reopening of businesses, Ira Glass commented in the episode’s epilogue that car sales went bonkers.
How did this make sense? Companies had been laying off people. Some companies even closed their doors for good. Congress passed a very large economic rescue package. The world economic news was terrible as well. This didn’t seem the time to make a large purchase. I figured people would reason that the resting piece of metal in their driveway, could make it another few thousand miles.
There lies the issue. Car purchases aren’t rational decisions. This is what Keynes meant when he wrote about Animal Spirits.
This is why the This American Life producer ended up buying a Jeep rather than the more reliable, more practical Honda Pilot she wanted to buy in the first place.
July 27, 2020
