Prediction
Mathieu van der Poel is not having his best last 12 months. Sure, there were a few big wins: Dwars door Vlaanderen, a stage win in the Giro d’Italia, the Grand Prix de Wallonie and of course the epic sprint battle to win De Ronde van Vlaanderen. Clearly not a pannekoek.
Yet, the Tour de France was not a success. He crashed severely in the Olympic Game mountain bike race. He sabotaged himself at the World Championship in Australia. And he has been falling short during the cyclocross season to beat Wout van Aert.
Wout van Aert however has been riding another banner year: Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, E3 Saxo Bank Classic, Paris-Nice stage win, Criterium du Dauphine wins, an amazing Tour de France for himself (stage wins and the green jersey) and for the team (yellow jersey). Great cyclocross wins against Mathieu van der Poel and Tom Pidcock.
Wout has been growing steadily over the past years, whereas Mathieu has stagnated. So what’s been going on?
My theory is that is boils down to the team. Wout has been surrounded by a great Jumbo-Visma team with a scientific sport approach and where the team prevails over the individual.
On the other hand, Alpecin-Fenix team from MvdP, has been fighting above its weight class for several years. They are a small wonder of a team. Yet, they can not compete with the likes of Ineos or Jumbo in budget and staff. Combine that with the fact that Mathieu is their primadonna star, who can dictate his individual desires over the team goals.
Mathieu needs a change, a reset.
The news that Jumbo supermarkets are not doing so well in Belgium may just bring that.
It is not a secret that Jumbo-Visma wants to build the best team with Dutch riders, just like Rabobank many years ago. They already invested in a younger generation to train the next Dutch Tour winner. With Dylan Van Baarle, Jumbo added a big Classic rider to their ranks this year. Van Baarle came in second in De Ronde this year and won Paris-Roubaix.
My prediction is that Mathieu will join Jumbo-Visma in the coming 1-2 years, and that Wout van Aert will jump to Quickstep. Jumbo wants that all Dutch team. Patrick Lefevre needs the Classics wins in spring.