Covid-19 sneaker punches
The last day I worked in the RTI office was March 5th. I have been working from home ever since. In practice that meant I first set up shop in my son’s room as he has a nice desk and lots of sunlight. As he needed his room for his university Zoom sessions, I moved into the garage. I am living the Silicon Valley dream, together with one of our cats, Gemelli.
From the get-go, our family has taken covid-19 seriously. We stayed home. We washed and washed our hands. We masked and gloved up. We rarely went out for groceries, and figured out how to get groceries delivered. When the delivery arrives, we go in full blown pandemic mode. Non-perishables go in quarantine for multiple days, including the mail, and any Amazon packages. Perishables go through a thorough cleaning process. When all is done, the kitchen smells like a chemical plant.
We’re not alone in this. Santa Clara county was one of the first to act. California also has done a great job overall. But we are far from conquering this virus. Nothing really has changed. We don’t have a vaccine or treatment. We only flattened the curve and bought ourselves some time. So now is not the time to take our eye off the ball - regardless of all the other bad things happening in the country right now.
From my weekend reading, the following charts and articles caught my eye:
1. Things will likely get a lot worse soon
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Go check out John Hopkins Corona Virus US Map for your area. I am paying especially attention to Santa Clara county where we live, and also to Los Angeles county where my son goes to university.
Santa Clara County remains well organized with a good number of ICU beds, ventilators available. The New Cases trend showed that the Shelter in Place order was working. However, we need to pay attention now. It is going the wrong direction.
Santa Clara County
(source: LA Times)
Los Angeles county is completely different story. LA county has among the highest confirmed covid-19 cases. The more troubling aspect is that the trend of New Cases for Los Angeles county has been entirely going the wrong direction. It never got a reprieve.
Los Angeles County
(source: LA Times)
The LA Times website has a lot of great info.
2. It is not time to starting dancing yet
If you want to make the Herd Immunity argument, please go check out a great Medium post about how Sweden fared.
“Sweden is suffering tremendously in cases and deaths. Yet few people have been infected yet. They are a long way from Herd Immunity.”
The article compares Sweden’s strategy with the alternative approach: the Hammer and Dance.
“The other strategy is the Hammer and the Dance: Aggressively attack the coronavirus by locking down the economy. Once curbed, jump into the Dance by replacing the aggressive lockdown with cheap and intelligent measures to control the virus.”
3. “Belgium had the worst response”
Beyond the USA, I pay attention to Belgium and Argentina, where our families live. Recently, there has been a lot of bad press, especially from the Economist, about Belgium.
“Belgium had the worst response to the coronavirus crisis out of OECD countries.”
Chart
However, the truth is more nuanced.
“Only Belgium has a higher share of care home deaths, and that’s because they are one of the few countries that also count suspected deaths from coronavirus in care homes as official cases. … Half of the country’s deaths are in care homes, but of those only 5% have been tested. 95% have simply been assumed to be caused by the coronavirus. It also suffered from a massive initial peak that has since been controlled.”
Throughout these past months, I kept reading the Belgian newspapers. I can assure you, there were no statements about hydroxychloroquine or injections with disinfectant from the government. When the dust settles, I fear Brazil and the USA may come out on top of the worst response.
4. Pay attention to the transmission rate
A great resource to track is http://rt.live, showing the Rt value for covid-19 per state. Rt is the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. For example, take a look at California, currently at Rt=1.05.