I’ve spent a lot of ntime on the road, training for ALC 2025 and other rides. There is nothing that comes close to riding outdoors, nose in the wind, snottering, while feeling even bump of the uneven pavement.
Yet, sometimes riding outdoors is not an option: rain, darkness, or you just don’t have the time for a long ride. That’s when I join a spin class or hop on an indoor trainer. It can be boring to pedal indoors. For this, I created a great Youtube playlist featuring:
After a few articles on the same subject, I read, Unit X, how the pentagon and Silicon Valley or transforming the future of war, by Raj M. Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff.
Somewhat oddly, the protaganists in the book, chose to write their own story and toot their own horns, rather than working with biographer, like Walter Isaacson.
The premise of the book is simple and could have been a story in Wired Magazine:
The military complex has lost its edge and speed, in part because of a bureaucratic, slow, and politicized procurement process.
Silicon Valley, with its roots in the Cold War, cares more about emojis than about building technology in the interest of national security.
The threat is China.
The authors tell the story of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), which they created at Moffett airfield in Mountain View, California, against great resistance from the establishment Washington. They describe their founding and funding tribulations, as well as various successes in bringing better solutions to the war fighter. They also take you along the halls of congress fighting the political machinery.
Even though it all happened in my backyard, I had not heard about DIU. I did meet some similar folks from In-Q-Tel (IQT), the CIA’s venture fund, at an event, looking for opportunities to fund new technology.
Yet, this world isn’t entirely foreign to me, as the company I work for provides key technology to both aerospace and defense companies, including many US prime contractors, and to commercial companies. We also have an active SBIR research program.
Referring to how our software saves the government money by leveraging a commercial of the shelve (COTS) solution, our CEO is quoted saying,
Prime contractors sell hours, we sell anti-hours.
The book highlights the importance of Other Transaction Authority (OTA) contracts, as they are much faster and easier, then the regular route. This book should have been called How Washington needs to redo how it buys military systems.
Lastly, worth noting is the surprising and increasing role of Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, in bridging tech and defense and in the “AI war” with China. He surely isn’t counting his money on an island somewhere.
In summary: interesting to read a few chapters; could have been an article. Yet, be alarmed by China and the hole our defense innovation has fallen into.
There are ten days to go before the final ALC pushes off in San Francisco. ALC recently passed $14 Million with more to arrive this week. The training is done. The packing remains.
This past week, I have been in maintenance mode: some light zone 2 indoor cycling and plenty of yoga. This weekend, I’ll do some short training ride in the South Bay to keep the cement from hardening. Stay loose.
For a while, I’ve believed that increased frequency and intensity of major storms, provided clear evidence that climate change was real.
Until I found out that: It’s complicated”.
Several Atlantic hurricane activity metrics show pronounced increases since 1980. However, evidence for any significant trends is much weaker considering trends beginning from the early 20th century, partly due to observed data limitations. - NOAA fact sheet
A recent ChatGPT deep research provides the following referenced conclusions.
Possible decline in storm counts: While a clear upward trend in the number of storms has not been observed, some evidence suggests a slight decrease in global storm frequency over the long term. A recent study using historical reanalysis data (1850–2012) estimates that the annual number of tropical cyclones worldwide may have declined by about 13% since pre-industrial times. - Carbon Brief
In contrast to the ambiguous trend in total storm count, the number of major hurricanes (Category 3–5) has shown signs of increase. The proportion of tropical cyclones that reach major hurricane intensity has likely increased over the past four decades. - wmo
There is mounting evidence that the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing. Storms are reaching higher maximum sustained winds than in decades past. - IPCC
… regional patterns vary. The North Atlantic has experienced a marked increase in hurricane frequency and intensity, whereas the Western Pacific’s storm count is steady or down but with a growing share of intense typhoons. The North Indian Ocean is seeing more intense storms in the Arabian Sea, and the Southern Hemisphere shows flat or declining cyclone numbers. These variations often reflect regional climate shifts — for instance, differential ocean warming rates, aerosol changes, or shifts in atmospheric circulation — superimposed on the globally-increasing thermal energy available to storms.
In other words, it isn’t as clear cut as more frequent and more intense.
Got a minute? There is lots to read. In Interesting Things I read this week, I read Climate Science Whiplash, in which Roger Pielke Jr argues that cherry picking is easy, but baking cherry pies is hard.
There is surely a climate study to prove your point. Any point.
think of publications in the peer-reviewed literature that project how weather and climate variables might change due to human influences on the climate system. There are millions of such studies, and if you tell me a outcome — for instance, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, fewer but stronger hurricanes, more but weaker hurricanes, wetter, dryer, faster, slower — I can assuredly find you a peer-reviewed study that projects such an outcome due to human influences.
He calls what is going on: The Guaranteed Winner Scam Meets the Hot Hand Fallacy. I suggest you read the article to get his examples.
We reason backwards,
Instead of using science to inform understandings of the thing that just happened, we use the thing that just happened to cherry pick which subset of science we decide is relevant.
while nature may seem to have a hot hand occasionally.
First, the wide range of available predictions or projections essentially spanning the range of possibilities means that some expectations will seem to have anticipated the thing that just happened and suggest more to come. Second, a defining feature of climatology is persistence, suggesting that nature does sometimes have a “hot hand” — it is not always a fallacy in the context of climate. However, knowing a true “hot hand” from a false one is not simple..
As a result, we’re not really practicing science. We’re picking narratives.
Scientific assessments are so crucial because they force us to consider an entire body of research, not just a single paper or a seemingly-relevant tiny subset. Assessment is incredibly difficult not just because of the enormity of the scientific literature, but because the “excess of objectivity” supports multiple legitimate interpretations of that literature. Scientific assessment is hard to do well.
One reason why the IPCC framework sets a high bar for detection of changes in climate variables and the attribution of detected change to causes are is that it is so very easy for us to seem patterns in randomness and ascribe causes that do not actually exist, or are not particularly significant. Frustration with the scientific rigor of the IPCC is one factor underlying the rise of far less rigorous approaches to detection and attribution.
The “excess of objectivity” does not imply that we know nothing because we know so very much. What it does tell us is that knowing what is what can be challenging and requires a lot of work. This, more than anything else, is why we should all work to maintain (and improve) the integrity of scientific assessment bodies like the IPCC. Cherries are delicious — but you can’t make reliable understandings with them — stick to pie.
The WSJ The Journal podcast episode, Made in America? Shoe companies already tried that, describes the complexities in trying to bring shoemaking back to North America. It tells the story of the failure of the heavily automated Nike plant in Guadalajara, Mexico. This was all pre-tariffs on Vietnam, Indonesia, and China.
It turns out making sneaker requires a lot more skilled manual labor, than one originally thinks. The materials are squishy and stretchy, and are highly susceptible to changes in temperature and humidity. Humans are great at adjusting to those changes. Machines are not.
When Nike wanted to bring shoemaking back to North America, one mantra was
We’re getting rid of all the toothbrushes
This referred to the toothbrushes required to apply various glues.
Automating the process wasn’t as easy.
We spent 8 months to add the Nike swoosh onto the shoe. And then the model changed.
When design is lead dog, it is a challenging environment for technology to keep up with.
Let’s tariff the heck out of them, so that manufacturing comes back the US. Let’s use robots. Err. Let’s train manual labor. Sure. And now let’s keep the price low. Err. You see the flaw in this logic?
The only option is to all wear Mao-style outfits and shoes. One model. One design. No swoosh.
Last Friday, I finally took the plunge. Kicked off my Crocs, peeled open what looked like a giant cosmic egg, and slipped into what can only be described as a WTF machine.
This wasn’t just a fancy bathtub, the cocoon was a floating tank. Floating therapy (or sensory deprivation therapy in geek speak), involves lying in a dark, soundproof tank filled with warm water and Epsom salt, allowing the body to float effortlessly. Dead Sea style. The goal is to minimize sensory input to promote relaxation and mental clarity.
Some of the benefits (supported by both anecdotal and scientific evidence) include:
Stress Reduction: The sensory deprivation environment calms the nervous system. Cortisol levels (a stress hormone) may drop, promoting deep relaxation.
Pain Relief: Epsom salt (magnesium sulfate) may reduce muscle tension and inflammation.
Enhanced Sleep Quality: Floating can improve sleep patterns and help with insomnia. Who still counts sheep anyway?
Improved Focus and Creativity: The brain enters a theta wave state—associated with deep meditation and inspiration.
Faster Recovery for Athletes: Reduces lactic acid buildup and muscle soreness. Encourages quicker recovery after intense training or competition.
Anxiety and Depression Relief: Cheaper than therapy, but still not a replacement (my therapist made me add that).
Increased Magnesium Absorption: Absorbing magnesium through the skin may support cardiovascular, muscular, and nervous system health.
My virgin voyage was mind-blowing. I turned off all lights and floated in complete darkness (rookie mistake—apparently there’s a “stars” button that projects a mini-galaxy on the ceiling). I tried listening to meditation music while wearing earplugs to avoid water in my ears, which is like ordering a diet coke with your super-sized meal—somewhat contradictory. But it worked.
The experience wasn’t entirely soundproof: I could the jets from a nearby hydro-massage chair that sounded like someone was making espresso in the next room. Luckily they left half way into my 45 minutes session.
I floated as if in space. It was a very relaxing experience, and I even slept for a bit.
10/10 will float again. Next time with stars and a rubber duck.
Ladies and gentlemen, in one corner we have Joe Rogan and RFK Jr. And the other corner we have a scrawny lad with an Afro hairstyle by the name of Malcolm Gladwell. At stake is the rotavirus and RFK Jr’s credibility.
In a recent episode of his Revisionist History podcast, Malcolm Gladwell digs into the efficacy of Rotateq, a vaccine against the Rotavirus. Rotateq is apparently also the subject of the third chapter in RFK junior‘s book, The real Anthony Fauci.
The podcast episode presents facts and scientists. The book on the other hand cites unverifiable numbers and leaves a lot of doubt. The origin of the numbers is questionable, even after contacting the office of RFK Jr.
Supporters in the camp of Joe Rogan and RFK Jr are dazzled by the data and take them face value. They live in happy-happy land. The notion that the I-am-just-asking-questions-guy isn’t really asking questions is not unsurprising, as Malcolm covers in The Joe Rogan Intervention episode.
I, on the other hand, don’t live in happy-happy land. Even when faced with data by Malcolm Gladwell, I remain skeptical. If Malcolm got this data fairly easily, why didn’t the New York Times, the Washington Post, or CBS 60 minutes or any other reputable no news source? Did they never even attempt?
If it was this easy to take apart chapter 3, how hard can it be to take apart the other chapters? Or is Malcolm Gladwell not telling us the full story?
The bottom line after listening to this podcast is that you shall be very skeptical of any numbers RFK Junior recites.
And I know there are some out there who still think: “Well, RFK is weird about vaccines, but he knows a lot about health-related issues.”But you would be surprised by just how wildly wrong he can be when he is spouting alarming, official-sounding statistics:
[KENNEDY] We are 4.2% of the world’s population. We buy 70% of the pharmaceutical drugs on Earth. 15% of American youth are now on Adderall or some other ADHD medication. When I was a kid — I always say this — a typical pediatrician would see one case of diabetes in his lifetime. Today, it’s one out of every three kids who walks through his office door. 20 years ago, there was no diabetes in China. Today, 50% of the population is diabetic.
Okay, so here’s the thing: all the numbers you just heard him say are wrong.
Americans don’t buy 70% of the drugs on Earth. We buy around 6%. 15% of American youth aren’t on ADHD meds — estimates put it closer to 5%. One in three kids don’t have diabetes — it’s actually 0.35% or 1 in 285 kids. And the rate of diabetes in China is roughly 12% — not, as I think you already know, 50%. Half of all the people in China do not have diabetes
Malcolm Gladwell and John Oliver have the resources and staff to investigate these claims. Most folks don’t have the time nor energy to do the same. Joe Rogan could have, but didn’t. He decided to not be a ringmaster, as he is from time to time known to do, but to join RFK Jr in his corner. And they are getting beaten up.
This past weekend in San Diego, we hopscotched between several coffee shops. The two local chains are Better Buzz and Bird Rock. There are several located throughout the city. Their coffee tastes great! The locations are welcoming with great seating. They are open late and full of students and people “being productive”.
Photo courtesy of Better Buzz Coffee.
We also loved Trident Coffee in Pacific Beach and Il giardino di Lilli in La Jolla. The latter is truly for hanging out and having coffee. No laptops allowed.
After a weekend here, I am convinced there is hope post-Starbucks. San Diego is leaving Starbucks and Coffee Bean behind. Dare I say that San Diego’s coffee scene beats Seattle’s? Let’s hope we can restore the Bay Area and South Bay scene soon.
“A lot of us are hoping there’s a revolution coming,” Joe Lonsdale, founder of software company Palantir and startup investor said at a recent defense forum, “where we hold the bureaucracy accountable, where we shock the bureaucracy.”
Palantir and Anduril are the darlings of this movement, and can show a lot of success, winning contract after contract.
The list of companies goes beyond Anduril. Vanity Fair’s Boys and their toys, on the hypermacho, Bible-thumping alt-tech universe trying to take on Silicon Valley—from El Segundo, introduces to a slew of starts ups, most of them in the Southern California El Segundo region: Rainmaker technologies, Valar Atomics, Neros, and Dirac. El Segundo brings a history of defense companies and manufacturing.
The article also introduces a new term: Gundo Bros, a special kind of tech bros: god-loving and patriotic.
Gundo is for hard tech what Florence was for art during the Renaissance
There are of course the skeptics to the drone and AI revolution.
“Warfare is always a human endeavor,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin said at the Reagan forum. “My own belief is that the future is really about the most effective human-machine teaming.”
David Allvin appears to be somebody who watched Top Maverick a few too many times. Yet, he is not the only one.
“What’s on Twitter is not based in reality,” Chris Power, founder of Hadrian, which has raised more than $100 million and automates the manufacture of components for military hardware, told Forbes. “Like all great momentum waves and venture capital, you gotta turn hype into reality,” he said. “And it’s mostly determined by how many of the founders are serious versus those that can’t transition from a running start.”
Delian Asparouhov, a partner at Founders Fund who has raised more than $180 million for his space drug-testing company Varda, recently said it more forcefully, dismissing a group of El Segundo-based entrepreneurs as “unserious people,” he wrote on X. “Go do something meaningful with your life before throwing stones.”
Pogacar dropped Alaphilippe and sets up for a solo last 40 kilometers. It seemed like another boring ending. … but …
Van Wilder pulls a large second group and keeps them within 30 seconds of Pogacar.
Counter attack Mattias Skjelmose.
Counter attack Remco Evenepoel, who picks up Skjelmose, and together they go after Pogacar. 23 seconds. 15 seconds. 24 seconds. 10 seconds.
Final climb of the Cauberg with 3 strong riders.
A sprint for the win between Pogacar, Evenepoel, and Skjelmose. Skjelmose wins!
Final conclusions:
Pogacar is not invincible. He’ll start to think twice before taking of for a long solo. He also is need for some important rest, even though Liege-Bastogne-Liege is around the corner.
Remco returned to racing with a vengeance. He is strong. He won the Brabantse Pijl. He could have won today, had he not crashed earlier in the race.
Van Aert rode a great race and had a strong sprint finish for the 4th place.
